We have reached the Easter break: record numbers of vaccinations, but still not enough

We have been saying for months that spring is essential to “beat the virus”. We have been announcing for weeks that more vaccines will be received in April alone than in all previous months. We have been saying for days that the fourth wave is beginning to knock on the country’s door. So today, on the eve of what seems like an inevitable Easter hiatus, the key question seems to be “How are we doing, how did we get to this (still theoretical) tipping point?”

Especially with regard to the central issue of 2021: the speed of vaccination, the percentage of immunized that a society has and, of course, the stock of vaccines. Because let’s not kid ourselves, as has been repeated since almost the beginning of the pandemic, the end of this global nightmare can only be sustained on the basis of vaccines. So, how did we get to the Easter break?

Record vaccination figures, but not enough

The current average is almost 200,000 doses delivered per day. Let me pause for a moment. Less than a month ago, Spain shattered all vaccination records to date by exceeding 110,000 doses per day. Today, and despite all the problems we have had with delays and vaccine controversies, we have already doubled that figure. And this must be just the beginning.

Fundamentally, because we need it. These 200,000 doses are still far from allowing us to reach the Government and the European Union’s objective. In fact, in order to vaccinate 70% of adult Spaniards at the beginning of the summer, we need to double that amount and reach 440,000 doses. However, if all goes well, with 330,000 we could meet the target by October.

Could we do any better?

With seven communities at high or very high risk and the fourth wave growing across Europe, the first question that comes to mind is whether we can take advantage of the vaccines we have and haven’t yet given. It makes sense: at the beginning of the vaccination campaign we were putting only 12% of the available vaccines. The problem is that this is no longer an option.

That 12% is an anecdote. During most of the campaign we have been very effective in providing everything that arrived and inoculating more than 90% of the available doses. In fact, the variations that can be seen in the graph above are due to the arrival of new vaccine shipments. In other words, there is only one viable solution to vaccinate quickly: get more vaccine.

Waiting for vaccines

So, one way or another, what we need is more vaccines. In fact, it is the ability to get more vaccines per capita that makes the biggest difference between countries when we compare their vaccination rates. Until recently, this left us in a complicated situation because there were no clear forecasts of what was to come.

However, the “vaccine crisis” has led the European Union to clarify schedules and this allows us to estimate what lies ahead. In the graph above, we have incorporated both vaccines received and those yet to be received. The good news is that it is achievable, the bad news is that it won’t be easy. We had better use the hiatus to build momentum.

Image | Hospital Clinic